Below is the narrative included in the 1996 Plan Update Form. This information is still included in this 1998 update since the information is relatively up to date. In addition, the more empirical data as listed under item two below has not yet been updated by the Comptrollers office.
1. Economic Effects on MSW Generation
The thirty-four Chambers of Commerce and numerous Economic Development Councils throughout the East Texas region continue to seek new businesses and industries. For example, Longview/Gregg County has received commitments to either start or expand more than thirty companies. Most are small (less than 50 employees) companies, but a few are projected to create more than 200 new direct jobs. Estimates show that more than 1,300 direct jobs will be available in these businesses, while ore than 2,200 indirect jobs will be established. Tyler/Smith County has also been successful in attracting new businesses. One example is the Target Distribution Center which will create more than 800 direct jobs for the area. The ETCOG staff does not see any appreciable increase in the amount of MSW created as a result of this economic expansion. We believe that most of the waste generated will be industrial, and will most likely be in the form of OCC and other paper which can be recycled.
As cited in the comptroller’s report (below), service and retail increases are projected at the 5.7% level. Additionally, total personal income in the East Texas region should be slightly above the statewide average. These factors normally relate to an increase in MSW generation. Athens/Henderson County recently opened the Texas Fish Hatchery which will eventually employ 50 people. This facility is projected to draw from 350,000 to 500,000 tourists annually. The increase of tourism in the area could show a marked increase in the MSW generated in the region. Given these three variables, it appears that more MSW will be generated in the region. While this is our best estimate, we have no empirical data on which to base our conclusions.
The following is extracted from a document created by the office of Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.
2. Economic Trends of the Past Decade
The economy of the East Texas region has seen both good and bad years over the past decade. Employment growth has been steady in recent years. (See Figure 2.1.) Anderson, Camp, Cherokee, Gregg, Harrison, Henderson, Marion, Panola, Rains, Rusk, Smith, Upshur, Van Zandt and Wood counties comprise the East Texas region, which has a current population of more than 691,000.
Over the last ten years, the region's nonfarm employment increased by 9.4 percent, from 204,500 jobs in 1984 to 223,100 jobs in 1993. This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent per year. Unemployment, currently at 6.4 percent, peaked in 1986 at 10 percent. The region witnessed its greatest employment growth in the late 1980s (1988-1990), when more than 12,200 new jobs were created during a period of expansions in service industries and government. Some of the area's largest employers are state prisons, regional hospitals and public schools. Major regional employers in manufacturing and retail trade include Texas Eastman, American Standard, Brookshire Grocery and Wal-Mart.
Agriculture along with trade and oil and gas remain important sources of income, but the region's economic base has broadened somewhat. Some parts of the East Texas region boast a large manufacturing sector. Still, trade, government and services account for 80 percent of the nonfarm jobs in the East Texas region.
Since the early 1980s the region has ridden out some wild swings precipitated by the oil and gas crunch. From 1984 to 1993, the region's mining sector lost over 4,400 jobs, declining by 34 percent. Meanwhile, the service and government sectors in the East Texas region increased their employment base by 49 and 31 percent respectively. Agricultural production and related services thrived, adding 2,200 new jobs, an increase of 82 percent since 1984.
East Texas' natural resources provide a basis for generating wealth in the region. Beef cattle, timber production and poultry are the dominating agricultural enterprises. Agricultural cash receipts in the region averaged almost $890 million for 1992 and 1993. Livestock receipts average more than $517 million annually, while crop production comprises 29 percent or about $250 million. The timber harvest was valued at $173 million in 1993. Milk and hay production add diversity to the region's agricultural base.
3. Economic Outlook for the East Texas region through 2000
The economy of the East Texas should continue a moderate, but slowing, expansion through the end of the century. After adding employment at an above state average rate of 3.4 percent rate from 1993 to 1994, employment growth should slow to 2.2 percent in 1995. (See Table 2.1.) For the last half of the 1990s, growth should moderate further in line with statewide trends, averaging a 1.6 percent annual employment growth from 1995 to 2000. In total, nearly 24,200 additional jobs should be generated by the region's economy from 1994 to 2000.
Strongly contributing to this overall pattern of slowing growth, construction employment, which posted a 2.3 percent growth rate from 1993 to 1994, will remain virtually unchanged in 1995 as higher interest rates begin to take their toll on the residential markets and some large projects wind down. Slower growth in construction will be the norm through 2000, with this sector averaging only 0.2 percent growth annually after 1995.
Manufacturing employment should remain largely unchanged through the end of the decade. Some portions of this sector such as paper and paper products, printing and publishing along with some firms in the timber industry should add employment in line with national and state industry trends. Other industries, such as textiles and apparel, will continue to come under increased import competition nationwide, and could suffer some declines during the decade. In other cases, productivity gains in highly automated production processes typical of industries such as petroleum refining and chemicals can lead to employment losses through attrition even though no productive capacity is lost.
As it has in the recent past, the service sector will generate many of the new jobs in the East Texas region through the end of the decade. Although the service sector will account for only 26 percent of all jobs in the region by the year 2000, the addition of 12,440 jobs to the region's service sector from 1994 to 2000 accounts for more than half of the expected job growth for the region as a whole during this period. Nonetheless, the rate at which the service sector is expanding will slow over the next few years, falling from a torrid 5.7 percent job growth rate from 1993 to 1994, down to 4.6 percent growth in 1994-95, and averaging 3.3 percent from 1995 to 2000.
Employment in both mining and federal civilian government is likely to decline steadily through the end of the decade. With federal budget constraints continuing to face Congress in the foreseeable future, it is likely the recent downsizing and consolidation seen in the county agent offices of the Department of Agriculture will become more of the norm for other federal programs. In mining, the oil and gas extraction industry will continue its slow decline as an employment force in the East Texas region and throughout nearly all producing regions of Texas.
On the other hand, employment growth in state government should remain strong during the decade. The expansion of criminal justice facilities, such as those in Rusk and Wood counties, will continue to be one of the fastest growing segments of state government. This source of employment growth should help add about 1,500 jobs in state government to the region's job base from 1994 to 2000.
The growth of the region's economy will feed continued population growth. Total population in the region is expected to rise from 683,300 in 1994 to 710,800 by 2000. As the baby boom generation continues to move out of prime child-bearing ages, however, the rate of growth in the East Texas region's population will slow through the end of the decade mirroring declining birth rates expected across the state in the last half of the 1990s.
Reflecting the pattern of employment growth, total personal income in the region displayed strong growth from 1993 to 1994, increasing 7.2 percent, slightly above the statewide figure of 6.8 percent. As the region's employment base continues to expand but at slower rates, so to will total income grow, but at a somewhat slower pace, increasing 6.8 percent in 1995 and averaging 6.6 percent annual growth from 1995 to 2000.
Because the rate of population growth will decline quicker than the rate of growth in total personal income from 1995 to 2000, the rate of growth in per capita income should actually increase in the last half of the 1990s, averaging 6.0 percent growth during this period, up from a 5.9 percent growth rate in 1993-94 and a 5.6 percent rate expected in 1994-95. This rising per capita income coupled with good total personal income growth in the region will drive fairly strong increases in retail sales. The rate of growth in retail sales in the region should slightly exceed that of the state as a whole through the end of the century.
Source: John Sharp-Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Gaining Ground, A Regional Outlook: An Analysis of the Economy and Work Force, East Texas Region